Hiphop graphene: the king of new materials
Graphene is a two-dimensional carbon nanomaterial composed of carbon atoms with sp2 hybrid orbitals and a hexagonal type, which is like a honeycomb lattice. The single-layer Graphene is composed of a layer of dense carbon six-membered rings. Its thickness is about 0.335nm, which is the thinnest two-dimensional carbon nanomaterial so far.
In fact, graphene already exists in nature, but it is difficult to peel off the monolayer structure. Layers of graphene make graphite, and one millimeter thick contains about three million layers of graphene.
University of Manchester physicists Andre geim and konstantin novoselov won the 2010 Nobel Prize in physics for successfully separating graphene from graphite by micromechanical stripping.
Graphene materials have special properties that other materials do not have, such as excellent electrical properties, excellent mechanical properties, extremely high thermal conductivity, large specific surface area, excellent barrier properties, etc., which make it have application value that traditional materials cannot match in many fields. Therefore, it is called "the king of new materials".
Graphene can be used in a wide range of fields, mainly in energy, environment, electronics, chemical industry and other industries, especially in the electronics industry lithium battery materials, super capacitors, OLED, flexible screen, sensors, chips and other fields, as well as the chemical industry coating, adsorption, desalination and other fields.
Industrial chain of hiphop graphene: the development of the upper and middle reaches is fast, but the application of the lower reaches is still waiting for a breakthrough
The upstream of graphene is mainly graphene research and development, graphene equipment, and graphene raw materials.
The middle part is the preparation of graphene, including go and graphene film. The number of layers of go is relatively large. The graphene film is below 10 layers.
The downstream is mainly the application field of graphene, which has great potential commercial value in energy, electronics, composites, environmental protection and other fields.
Since its discovery in 2004, graphene has attracted great attention from countries around the world. In recent years, the speed and coverage of China's policies have been increasing, attracting a large amount of industrial capital to continuously invest in related research and commercial application of graphene.
Among them, made in China 2025 released in October 2015 clarified the key position of graphene in strategic frontier materials, emphasized its strategic layout and development, and stried to achieve the development goal of "forming a 10 billion industrial scale by 2020 and a total industrial scale exceeding 100 billion by 2025" for the graphene industry.
According to CGIAResearch, in 2017, the number of graphene-related r&d, equipment, preparation, sales, application, investment, testing and technical services in China reached 4,871, up 28.93% year-on-year.
But about 2,600 companies are actually doing business with graphene. Among them, 1,477 enterprises are engaged in technical services, sales, investment and testing, accounting for nearly half of the total, 217 research and development institutes are engaged in graphene-related research, 340 enterprises (institutes) are engaged in equipment and preparation, and 623 enterprises are engaged in downstream applications.
Upstream graphite: domestic resources are abundant, raw material quality is competitive
Graphite is one of the important raw materials for preparing graphene. According to the statistics of the us geological survey (USGS), in 2017, the world's graphite reserves were 270 million tons, with Turkey, Brazil and China having the most abundant resources, accounting for 33%, 26% and 21% of the global total respectively, accounting for 80% of the total.
Although Turkey has the largest graphite reserves in the world, its resources are mainly cryptocrystalline graphite, which is mainly used in medium and low-end products. However, Brazil and China are mainly crystalline graphite, whose resource strategic position is higher than that of cryptocrystalline graphite.
In terms of output, China's graphite output has been the first in the world in recent ten years. At present, the domestic annual output is stable at about 800,000 tons, which is significantly ahead of the second place, Brazil's output of 95,000 tons. In terms of global output, China basically keeps at 65%~70%, which can be said that China controls the global supply of graphite resources.
In terms of domestic regions, based on the 2016 data, China's crystalline graphite reserves are about 200 million tons, mainly distributed in heilongjiang (43%), Inner Mongolia (27%), sichuan (7%), shanxi (6.5%) and shandong (5.4%). The reserves of the five provinces and cities account for about 89%. The reserves of cryptocrystalline graphite are about 64.85 million tons, mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia (58%), hunan (14.7%), jilin (13.7%) and guangdong (5.9%).
On the whole, China's raw material graphite resource reserves and output are in the world's leading level, and the resource distribution is relatively concentrated, the quality is mainly used for high-end applications of crystalline graphite.
Midstream preparation: powder technology is ahead of thin film
Graphene products can be divided into two categories: thin film and powder. Graphene powder is mostly doped in other materials, mainly used in coatings and lithium ion batteries. Due to the advantages of transparency, conductivity and flexibility, graphene film has been widely used in the fields of electronics, photons and optoelectronic devices, and has great development prospects.
At present, the mainstream graphene preparation methods include REDOX method, chemical vapor deposition method, liquid phase stripping method and epitaxial growth method. The quality and cost of graphene obtained by different preparation methods are quite different, and the applicable fields of corresponding products are also different.
The key factors that determine mass production are firstly technology maturity, secondly manufacturing cost and industrial application obstacle.
Downstream application: concentrated application in the field of new energy
In recent years, certain progress has been made in the industrial application of graphene in China. The upstream and downstream industrial chains have been initially broken through and the downstream application fields have been continuously expanded.
According to CGIAResearch, graphene market size from 600 million yuan in 2015, growth in 2017 to 7 billion yuan, including the graphene in the field of new energy market size reached 5 billion yuan, the graphene coatings market reached 800 million yuan, composite materials and large health industry achieves 500 million yuan, the fields of both energy saving and environmental protection and the 100 million yuan.
Among them, graphene powder can be applied in various fields of materials science, such as conductive agents, supercapacitors, special coatings, high-efficiency catalysts and so on.
Graphene powder is mainly in the form of additives and other materials to form a mixture or composite materials (except thermal conductivity film, super capacitor), so that these mixed or composite materials have the mechanical, electrical and thermal properties of graphene.
In terms of graphene film, on the one hand, it can be applied to thermal conductivity film to give play to its excellent thermal conductivity and be used as the thermal layer of smart phones, tablets and other devices. The conductive light transmission and high flexibility of graphene can be used to make flexible display screens, wearable devices and so on.
Graphene's large specific surface area and excellent electronic transmission performance make the sensor field a major target market for graphene thin films.
In addition, the replacement of silicon by graphene is expected to revolutionize the semiconductor field and become the basic material for the next generation of integrated circuits and supercomputers.
After years of independent research and development, China has made breakthroughs in the large-scale production technology, process equipment and product quality of graphene.
In terms of application prospects, compared with graphene powder, it has obvious advantages of low cost, and the industrial application barriers are relatively small. In the future, it is expected to be the first to achieve large-scale application in the film.
In 2020, graphene conductive agent is expected to break the cost bottleneck, and the market space will usher in rapid development.
Currently, commonly used conductive agents for lithium batteries include carbon black, carbon nanotubes, carbon nanofibers and graphene.
Compared with traditional lithium battery conductive agents, graphene shows great advantages in terms of conductivity, specific surface area, particle size and dispersion performance.
Relevant studies have proved that in the range of 1-6wt% conductive additive, the resistivity of graphene conductive agents is only 1/40-1/60 of conductive carbon black of the same concentration, and only 1/10 of carbon nanometer of the same concentration. At 10C and the battery capacity of 0-133mah ·g-1, the discharge voltage of graphene is also significantly higher than that of conductive carbon black.
Price: according to the statistics of the graphene industry alliance, the price of graphene conductive agent in 2015 was $230 / kg, which is similar to the price of carbon nanotube conductive agent. However, the price of graphene conductive agent has a significant downward trend, and the average price in 2017 dropped to $180 / kg.
Monocrystalline silicon application in the field of photovoltaic (technical breakthrough takes about 2 ~ 3 years), considering the related to the flow of capital and the strong support of national policy, graphene will further mature production technology, we expect that by 2020 or so graphene conductive agent is expected to cost of breakthrough the bottleneck, prices are expected to fall to $100 / kg, while the carbon nanotube price still keep $200 / kg (because carbon nanotube technology is relatively mature, cost reduction less space).
In 2016 ~ 2017 is application of graphene in lithium battery field exploration, the overall market penetration is low, at about 1%, is expected at this stage of growth is mainly thanks to rapid growth of new energy vehicles of the lithium battery capacity expansion, new energy automobile production from 2016 to 2017 the average annual growth rate of above 50%, over the same period of lithium ion battery production growth is above 30%, lithium battery production reached 11 billion 2017 only.
Since 2018, with the gradual elimination of subsidies for new energy vehicles by the government, the production growth of new energy vehicles has gradually slowed down, resulting in a decline in the growth of lithium battery.
We believe that the market growth of lithium battery in the future may be driven by technological progress. Given the high performance advantages of graphene over other conductive agents and future cost competitiveness, the market share of graphene in lithium battery conductive agents is expected to gradually increase, thus driving the market scale to keep expanding.
We assume that the growth rate of lithium battery in the next two to three years will be stable at about 20%, so the production of lithium battery is expected to reach 160GWh by 2020.
In terms of permeability, the permeability of graphene in lithium battery reached about 2.5% in 2018, and the permeability of reference ternary positive electrode material increased from 18% in 2015 to 39% in 2017. We expect that the permeability of graphene will increase to about 5% by 2020, corresponding to the demand for graphene of about 21,000 tons.
If the price of graphene falls to about 650,000 yuan/ton with the mature technology, we predict that the market size of graphene in the field of conductive agent will reach about 14 billion yuan by 2020.
Supercapacitor is a kind of electrochemical energy storage device between traditional capacitor and secondary battery, with the advantages of large capacity, high power density, long cycle life, etc., especially suitable for electric vehicles, power systems, portable electronic equipment and other applications. However, the low energy density is a major bottleneck of ultracapacitors. According to the current technological progress, graphene is expected to improve the energy density of ultracapacitors by more than 10 times, which will greatly change the current performance shortage of ultracapacitors.
In recent years, China's super capacitor industry has achieved rapid development due to relevant industrial support policies issued by the state. In 2017, the industry market scale exceeded 7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 31%.
During the 13th five-year plan period, the main driving force to promote the development of China's super capacitor industry still lies in policies. New energy vehicles, wind power, transportation rail, electric power, military industry and other super capacitor application fields are all the key objects supported by national policies during the 13th five-year plan period.
We believe that the annual compound growth rate will remain at about 30% from 2019 to 2020, and the market size of supercapacitors is expected to reach 15 billion yuan by 2020.
The market for graphene in anticorrosive coatings is expected to grow by 50% over the next two years
The application of graphene in coatings mainly focuses on six directions: anticorrosive coatings, conductive coatings, building insulation coatings, Marine antifouling coatings, polymer cement waterproof coatings and flame retardant coatings.
When graphene is added to the coating, graphene can form a stable conductive grid, which effectively improves the utilization rate of zinc powder. From the actual effect, adding about 5% graphene powder can reduce the use of zinc powder by 50%.
Among all kinds of coatings, graphene is currently the most widely used in heavy anticorrosive coatings.
Heavy anticorrosive coatings as an important field of national economy of the main engineering materials, it involves transportation, petrochemical, electric power, Marine engineering, construction engineering and other departments, the international development level of heavy anticorrosive coatings as a measure of the advanced degree of coating industry standards.
In 2017, the output of heavy anticorrosive coatings in China reached 3.89 million tons, accounting for 65% of the total output. Considering that the state encourages and supports the r&d and production of heavy anticorrosive coatings, it is expected that the proportion of heavy anticorrosive coatings in the next two years is expected to maintain this level, and the output of heavy anticorrosive coatings in 2020 is expected to reach about 4.9 million tons.
Graphene membrane performance obvious advantages, the future development remains to be the breakthrough of several big above are based on the size of the market analysis in the field of graphene powders applications, and for graphene films, mainly used as the thermal conductivity of membrane, flexible display and sensor and so on, although less powder in mass production, but still has broad prospects in the future.
Under the background of rapid popularization of electronic devices, especially smart phones, laptops and other mobile terminals, the heat dissipation problem of high power operation of equipment has always been the focus of the industry. Heat dissipation thin film with high thermal conductivity is a key material in this regard and an effective means to achieve efficient heat management.
At present, the most widely used heat conduction material is graphite. Many smart phones and laptops are equipped with corresponding graphite heat dissipation products. However, graphene is known to have the highest thermal conductivity, with a theoretical thermal conductivity of 5300W/m·K, which is much more efficient than current commercial graphite heat sinks.
In addition, due to the low technical difficulty and relatively mature technology, there is an opportunity to enter the market quickly. With the trend of large screen of smart phone and high-speed chip of smart terminal, the heat dissipation ability of the device is increasingly required, which also opens sufficient space for the development of graphene heat conduction film with better thermal conductivity.
We expect that by 2020, the heat dissipation components using graphene heat dissipation membrane for heat dissipation will reach 10% of the total market of electronic products and LED products, which will bring about 350 million market space for graphene heat dissipation membrane.
Graphene is not only nanoscale, but also quasi-continuous, which can be transferred to a flexible substrate to make flexible, transparent and highly sensitive sensors.
The flexible stress sensor of graphene has good stability. After more than 10,000 pressure tests, its initial resistance has no significant change.
The leap in the wearable market presents a huge market opportunity for graphene sensors
Wearable devices have high requirements on screen flexibility and need sensitive sensor accessories. The transparency and flexibility of graphene is the way to truly realize wearable devices.
China's wearable device market grew from 230 million yuan in 2011 to 26.42 billion yuan in 2017, with an average annual growth rate of 120 percent.
In 2017, China's smart wearable device industry produced 58.8 million units, up 32.43 percent year-on-year.
Currently, the most mature flexible display screens on the market use ITO film (indium tin oxide), which accounts for about 40% of the cost of display panel.
In terms of cost, given that ITO has been mass-produced for many years and the price is lower year by year, graphene does not have the cost advantage of large-scale replacement of ITO in the current industrial environment.
We think in the short term graphite